Opinion | In this election, Madhya Pradesh is ripe for Congress’ picking

The division of labour between Kamal Nath and Jyotiraditya Scindia seems to be working for the Congress with Scindia as the primary vote catcher and Nath driving the campaign from behind

Anand Kochukudy

Madhya Pradesh goes to polls on Wednesday, November 28, and most pollsters have predicted a photo finish. Despite battling anti-incumbency, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is still being favoured to scrape through even as the Congress is desperately seeking that elusive victory in a direct face-off with the BJP.

The state remains crucial to Congress’ chances of emerging as the fulcrum of opposition parties going into the 2019 general election.

Unlike Rajasthan, where Sachin Pilot got five years to build a strong organisation, nine-time Member of Parliament (MP) Kamal Nath was announced as the Pradesh Congress President only six months ago, in May. Although Nath hit the ground running and has since shored up the party machinery with All India Congress Committee (AICC) in-charge Deepak Babaria, the Congress is up against the cadre-based Sangh Parivar with deep roots in the state.

In Madhya Pradesh, the Congress has adopted a pronounced soft-Hindutva approach. Whether it is the temple-hopping of Congress President Rahul Gandhi or the likes of Kamal Nath and Jyotiraditya Scindia, or the promises in the manifesto, the grand old party seems to be targeting the core Hindutva voters yearning for a change. In a state with more than 90 percent Hindus, the erosion in their traditional vote-banks and the anti-Hindu charge thrust on them by the BJP, has seen them looking beyond the Scheduled Castes (SCs), Scheduled Tribes (STs) and minorities.

The Congress’ burnishing of their Hindu identity has also been prompted by the BJP’s efforts to polarise the electorate towards the fag end of polls. The grand old party reckons that this strategy would take the sting out of the BJP’s efforts at communalising the electorate. Although this strategy did not quite come off during the Gujarat elections last year, the Congress is banking on its strong regional satraps to pull it off in Madhya Pradesh

The party seems to also have taken a leaf out of the BJP’s book in their cadre mobilisation strategy. The party has divided its block committees into mandalams, sectors and booths in the state since May and have appointed people in charge at every level. They are being overseen by more than 50-plus observers and this seems to have rejuvenated the moribund organisation.

Although factionalism has largely been kept under check, there are murmurs about ticket distribution. Nath has had the last word in ticket distribution like Amarinder Singh in Punjab even though Scindia and Digvijaya Singh too have had their say.

Despite claiming winnability as the sole criterion, many acolytes of these senior leaders have found a place leaving many aspirants in the lurch. When no chief ministerial candidate is projected in a state, this is a natural by-product as everyone with a shot of occupying the top job wants to squeeze as many of his supporters among the candidates.

Apart from the alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) not materialising, most political pundits reckon that the Congress has not put its best foot forward in their candidate selection.

The Vyapam whistle-blowers Anand Rai and Paras Saklecha have been denied tickets and so were DP Dhakad and Kedar Sirohi, the leaders of the farmers’ agitation in Mandsaur. Despite seeking to piggyback on these protests, Congress’ sycophantic culture seems to have come in the way of carrying them along.

Unlike Gujarat, where the likes of Hardik Patel and Jignesh Mewani were sought to be accommodated, the Congress seems to have forsaken the credibility of having these activists fighting on their behalf. The failure to have truck with the Gondwana Gantantra Party (GGP), despite their modest demand for seats, too betrays a sense of over-confidence.

One of the biggest hurdles for the Congress is the popularity of Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan. Despite the Vyapam scam and the Mandsaur firing incident, Chouhan’s personal aura remains largely undiminished. His soft-spoken demeanour and welfare schemes have seen him getting re-elected twice.

Although the BJP has often raked up the question of ‘Shivraj versus who’ in the state, the division of labour between Nath and Scindia seems to be working for the Congress with Scindia as the primary vote catcher and Nath driving the campaign from behind.

The involvement of Scindia has seen youth participation and people turning up in larger numbers for his rallies. However, for all practical purposes, Kamal Nath is the front-runner to occupy the Chief Minister’s chair if Congress can claim majority.

Unlike 2013, when the Congress-led UPA was battling anti-incumbency at the Centre and Scindia was joined too late into the campaign, this election is ripe for the Congress’ picking.

When Chouhan’s brother-in-law joined the Congress recently, he stated -- “Congress ko Nath ki zaroorat hai” -- a wordplay on Kamal Nath and the literal meaning of ‘nath’ (leader). It remains to be seen if Nath will indeed emerge as the ‘Nath’ of Madhya Pradesh come December 11.

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